August has seen publication of results from two leading DMS algorithm developers, Seeing Machines and Smart Eye, for second quarter 2025 covering the period April to June. As data presented by Smart Eye confirms, right now Europe is the only market that matters for these two suppliers as Advanced Driver Distraction Warning (ADDW) for GSR compliance and the imminent introduction of the new Euro NCAP 2026 test protocols in January sends DMS deliveries rocketing in the coming quarters.
Source: Smart Eye
The latest Smart Eye analysis shows a 2026 global market for DMS estimated at about 20 million units, with Europe dominating shipments at about 12-13 million. While the specific numbers are open to debate, the importance of success in Europe isn't.
ADDW & NCAP
Mandatory ADDW compliance for GSR equates to an incoming 100 percent fitment rate for DMS in light vehicles sold in Europe. Meanwhile the Euro NCAP 2026 test protocols force OEMs to shun cheap and poorly performing DMS for more sophisticated systems which clearly score above the rising minimum threshold for a 5-star rating.
For NCAP23 OEMs could (and did) mostly ignore DMS features and performance and focus instead on scoring points in other categories. But for NCAP26 a DMS which fails to score above the minimum threshold in the “Safe Driving” category will automatically disqualify the entire vehicle from receiving the coveted 5-star safety rating.
The combination of these two factors both accelerates uptake of DMS in Europe over the next twelve months, and directs OEMs to just a handful of automotive DMS algorithm developers (Tier 2 suppliers) with a suitable feature set and advanced technology roadmap that can meet the necessary performance requirements.
Most automotive OEMs typically work on two-to-four-year design cycles, with Chinese OEMs typically working on 12-month cycles. This means the procurement decisions for which DMS algorithm developers will be used for ADDW compliance and NCAP26 in 2026 have already been made by every light vehicle OEM selling into Europe.