Lies, Damn Lies, and DMS "Design Wins"

2026 will clearly show who the market leader is for DMS, irrespective of whatever PR strategies are used by the two leading players.

Legendary investor Warren Buffett once said: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” In the DMS world, the tide can be thought of as time, the clock is ticking towards the European GSR mandate for advanced driver distraction warning coming in less than six months, and swimming naked is the use of PR strategies for “design wins” and “design win pipeline value” to establish a narrative of market leadership rather than publish actual quarterly cars on road data.

For now we can set aside the large DMS market in China, which has different software suppliers, different algorithm requirements, and wildly different price points. That is not to say the Chinese DMS algorithm developers are not succeeding in Europe - they are. But Europe is raising the bar for driver and occupant monitoring system performance through Euro NCAP, now with the introduction of NCAP26 and next with NCAP29.

Euro NCAP is vitally important because its test protocols tend to be replicated by other regional NCAPs around the world. ANCAP (Australasia) and BNCAP (India) are both following the Euro NCAP roadmap; JNCAP (Japan), KNCAP (Korea) are poised to follow Europe. CNCAP (China) is following its own path and timescales. Even NCAP (the original New Car Assessment Program which covers the U.S.) is stirring into life for DMS and OMS for hands-free driving assist and monitoring for distraction, drowsiness and impaired driving.

So while much commentary on DMS is focused on EU regulations, it is actually the voluntary adoption by OEMs of DMS and OMS to maximize points scoring for NCAP that is driving volumes in many regions.

That is why what is happening in the European DMS market is so vital to understand, because Euro NCAP sets the tone for what happens in much of the rest of the world.

For DMS in Europe, pole position comes down to a straight race between Seeing Machines and Smart Eye. Other algorithm developers are active, but they have a small estimated market share compared to these two suppliers. That may change in the coming years, but as the facts change, the analysis will change with it.

For 2026, this is a two-horse race. Let’s dive in.