Transparency as the Clearest Sign of Leadership
Decades of experience shows that a market leader will be transparent. It is the laggards that will prevaricate. Decide for yourself who is actually leading.
Seeing Machines and Smart Eye are two of the most talked about suppliers of software for automotive driver monitoring systems. Both are public companies and both publish quarterly data, albeit with differences in definitions and wildly different levels of transparency.
In its latest quarterly results published earlier in February for the periods 4Q25 and full year 2025, Smart Eye management reiterated once more that statements of quarterly cars on road, software pricing guidance, and segmentation of the automotive revenue total into automotive licensing, NRE and aftermarket AIS would not be provided.
The analysis is provided here:
Seeing Machines has now released a presentation which shows all this data. Let’s take a look.
In a rough calculation, automotive royalties was about 80 percent of first half FY2026 automotive revenues, which covers the period July to December. If total automotive revenues in that period is about US$12 million, that makes royalties about US$9.6 million. This is really broad-brush analysis, but it serves the purpose.
Delivery data from Seeing Machines is stated quarterly and released into the public domain. Deliveries for the second half of 2025 totalled 1,088,530 vehicles.
ASP = revenues/units.
So the Seeing Machines ASP for its software license is about US$9 over that period.
See how easy this is? Did the sky fall? No.
The estimate for Smart Eye is more like US$3-5 per vehicle for DMS. As is always the case in life, you get what you pay for. You can read more here:
July 2026 sees the introduction in Europe of the General Safety Regulation, as well as the introduction of the 2026 testing regime for Euro NCAP. Long story short, in third quarter 2026, every vehicle with four or more wheels sold in Europe (including EU, EFTA and the UK) requires a vision-based DMS to monitor for advanced distraction.
Data from the ACEA suggests new registrations of about 13 million light vehicles in 2025. First thoughts here:
More broad-brush numbers: that means in the period July to September with GSR fully in effect that between 3.0-3.5 million light vehicles will be registered in Europe with a DMS.
What is the Seeing Machines DMS delivery estimate for the coming quarters? That is shown below. July to September equates to FY27Q1. Note these are global delivery numbers.
What the chart demonstrates clearly is the role of EU regulation to drive up DMS volumes. What is coming this year will be dramatic, with volume growth starting in earnest probably in the January to March quarter. Which is now.
Does Seeing Machines know precisely the total volume shipments in each of the coming quarters? No. But neither do the tier-1 suppliers or even the OEMs. Those numbers are only known for certain after the period has closed and the hard data has been analyzed.
So here is the issue: Seeing Machines puts its delivery numbers and forecasts into the public domain. It publishes segmentation of its automotive revenues in sufficient detail to perform meaningful analysis, even to the point of calculating the average software price.
Smart Eye simply won’t do it.
Decide for yourself who is actually leading the DMS market as we go into the rapid growth quarters ahead for GSR compliance.
Want to know more about the big picture for the European automotive DMS market and "who supplies whom?" Message me for details of the Semicast analysis: "2026 Forward Share Estimates of the European Automotive Driver Monitoring Systems Market." There are two reports, one covering Tier 1 suppliers, and one covering Tier 2s.
Act now to request your copy of the study brochures and order forms to purchase these reports and to cut through the industry PR noise. Fastest delivery is by credit card payment via Stripe, accepting various card types. Direct wire transfer and conventional P.O. routes also accepted.
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